Top 10 Payout Yield Stocks
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I'm not much of a ranter, but it doesn't make any sense to me to continue to focus on dividends when there has clearly been a structural change in the market (that happened way back in 1982). (For newer readers there is background reading with lots of links at the end.)
Dogs of the Dow is simply the top ten stocks in the Dow sorted by dividend yield.
Flying Five further sorts those by lowest price.
Net Payout yield is the top ten Dow stocks sorted by net payout yield.
For the past 30 years or so the Dogs strategy has outperformed the DOW by ~ 3% per annum, and the Net Payout Yield strategy another 3% on top of that (ditto for Flying Five). All underperformed the Dow in 2007 but had monster years in 2006.
2008 is shaping up to be potentially the worst on record since 1972 for the Dogs and Flying Five strategies. Previous worst years are -8% and -15% respectively. Payout Yield is doing much better:
Dow: -10%
Dogs: -15%
Flying Five: -22%
Payout Yield: -6%
You can find the current payout yield stocks here. The top 10 right now are:
Home Depot (HD)
Pfizer (PFE)
McDonald's (MCD)
IBM (IBM)
Disney (DIS)
AT&T (T)
GE (GE)
Exxon (XOM)
Alcoa (AA)
Boeing (BA)
Flying Five (Link to original post here.)
Dogs of the Dow (Link to original post here.)
Net Payout Yield (Link to original post here.)
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This article has 14 comments:
vestor
For those individual investors interested in how he is able to do this and also view my opinions on where this stocks price is headed in the short and long term and what information I use to base those opinions on go to the following website bearfactsspecialistrep.... Click on the top of the Home page where it says, “Free Stock Reports” and you will be taken to the reports page. There you can read the reports on this issue and others. It will cost you nothing except the amount of time it takes you to read the report and any other pertinent information that you find interesting on how the “Specialist System” works and how it defrauds the average investor out of his and her hard earned money’s. The choice is yours, learn how to invest properly and make money in the market and this stock or continue to invest as you have in the past and continue to accumulate losses in the market.
Thank you for your time,
Richard
Yep - we've got to agree with you. This article is pretty inferior - useless and not very helpful to investors.
Anybody who has done the least bit of research on investing knows that a high dividend yield isnt necessarily good. Article sounds like a bit of filler to me.
Interesting take was the comment on the 'structural change in the market'. No joke. I'm sure other folks will say that the structural change took place in 1982 and others will say 1987...
What's the point of identifying a year? It is just an arbitrary point in time - and it doesn't even help an investor to know that this 'structural change' has occurred. Especially if it was supposed to have taken place over 20 years ago.
Regards,
Staff at TVI
todaysvalueinvestor.bl...
Over a year and a half ago I profiled an academic paper by Boudoukh, Michaely, Richardson, and Roberts is titled, "On the Importance of Payout Yield".
Dividends are only one way of returning capital to shareholders. Share repurchases are another such method (see MSFT), and since they are not taxed like dividends, it can be argued they are a more efficient way of returning profits. Buybacks represent about half of all shareholder payouts, and have increased steadily since the early 1980's. There is a structural reason for this, and is due primarily to the SEC instituting rule 10b-18 in 1982 - providing a safe harbor for firms conducting repurchases from stock manipulation charges. See Grullon and Michaely [2002] for more info on the impact of Rule 10b-18.
The authors of the above paper examined the payout yield and net payout yield, whose formula is:
Payout Yield = $ spent on dividends + $ spent on share repurchases
(Net payout is simply subtracting the $ raised through new share issues to the above formula)
The authors find that "the widely documented decline in the predictive power of dividends for excess stock returns is due largely to the omission of alternative channels by which firms distribute and receive cash from shareholdlers." Additionally, while dividend yield has lost its predictive ability over time, the payout yield has remained a robust indicator for excess stock return.
About a year later I posted a review of another academic paper titled "Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns" by Schill, Gulen, and Cooper. This paper is even more encompassing. It basically says a decrease in total assets is good - things like dividends, buybacks, spinoffs, and paying down debt. Ominous signs for future stock performance - acquistions, share issuances, borrowing, and sitting on lots of cash.
My article is only an update to these previous articles and hlighlights the terrible performance of two strategies that rely on dividend based screens.