Malkiel

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591 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 10:21 AM
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      Look for Market to Soar When Hedge Funds Stop Selling
      We can only hope our 401k mutual fund managers are smart enough to realize that it's time to stop hoarding cash and start "averaging down" their bargain buying before the hedgies begin their orchestrated manipulation of the market indexes upward...
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    • Fri Nov 7th 11:58 AM
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      Seven Highest Yielding Stocks Going Ex Dividend in November
      Some suggestions for playing this--

      Firstly, only do this in a deferred account like an IRA or 401k/403b/457. There's no point in doing any kind of short term buying/selling in a taxable account unless you're a day-trader.

      Consider delaying your buy until a good few weeks past the ex-dividend date. You can consult charts to see what happens to the stock between ex-dates: typically they decline, then begin to go up as buyers come in for the next dividend. Get your shares after they've lost some value between dividend payouts.

      When the next ex-dividend date is coming, see how the share prices are moving. If you are up more per share than the value per share of the dividend itself, sell and take that as your profit. Otherwise, hang in for the dividend. After all, you don't care how you get your profit, you just want a good chunk in a short time frame.

      Repeat steps one and two next month, rinse and spit...
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    • Fri Oct 31st 12:17 PM
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      'Too Much House' Buyers To Be Rewarded?
      It drives me mad when somebody who clearly hasn't been in the housing market recently or ever begins bloviating about this kind of stuff--very few mortgages today are initiated with a 20% down payment, in fact very few mortgages in the last 20 years have been subject to that requirement. Most mortgages big and small are initiated with 0%, 3%, or 5% down FHA or VA's; 20% down requirements are a thing of the Gerald Ford era. Even today the stringent conditions in a handful of bubble markets like LA is giving people the wrong impression that credit is that tight everywhere else. I can tell you it's not because I took out a 3% FHA in January of this year with no problem in a non-bubble market.

      And while on the surface it may seem that people who were given way too large a loan for their income will be rewarded, they really won't; the prices which they paid for their homes are likely to be so inflated that the market won't rise up to meet them for many years and they'll likely take their loss later. Only people who really stay in the homes for decades are likely to see a profit rather than a loss, not the common scenario any more...
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    • Thu Oct 23rd 15:48 PM
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      True or False: Murdoch Is Sick of Fox News?
      Did Citizen Rupert say anything about Rosebud?...
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    • Fri Oct 17th 16:48 PM
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      Is a Reverse Split in the Cards for Sirius?
      It's the case on the NYSE, and I believe also in the NSDQ where Sirius trades, that a share price below $1 generates a notice of delisting. On NYSE the company is given 6 months to do a reverse split or get its share price back up, which has happened to Rite Aid (RAD) this week. No doubt Mel has no choice but to prepare for a reverse split in the event that the share price doesn't come back up. There's nothing insidious here, they're doing what's mandatory to keep listing on the exchange...
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    • Thu Oct 16th 12:06 PM
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      The Great Hedge Fund Unwind Is Under Way
      Riddle me this, batman: if the hedgies are unwinding, which opposing parties must be spooling up their purchases of bargain stock? Is it the specialist firms as market makers who are taking it all back in, ready to become obscenely rich in the next bull, or are there big mutual fund players out there guaranteeing their place among the firmament of fat funds of the future by warehousing shares at wholesale? If us small players want to get a piece of whoever is the dealer at this blackjack table, who do we buy into?
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    • Thu Oct 16th 11:42 AM
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      Final Presidential Debate: The Wurzelbacher Falls
      Government has its place in the economy and by continuing the naive anti-government rhetoric of the failed Reagan era McCain throws away the opportunity that Obama will undoubtedly grab to stand in front of the country on inauguration day and, like JFK declaring we would go to the moon, declare that we will be energy independent by the end of his second term. That would be technically easy compared with going to the moon and the public is prepared to restore government its economic powers in order to maket it happen...
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    • Thu Oct 16th 11:28 AM
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      Program Trading, Dark Pools and Gold
      I like your orientation, but tell me, as a practical matter, how do you propose to banish "program" trading?

      "Dark Pools" are the real abomination here and should be easy to stamp out by SEC dictate--if shares are trading hands at anything other than their purchased value, then the deal should be done on an open exchange, period. I'm not sympathetic to endowment funds and other institutions that say they want to protect themselves from price manipulation; I'm entitled to be protected from price manipulation, too...
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    • Wed Oct 8th 14:14 PM
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      The Cramer Crash?
      If we parse his comment carefully, we realize that he wasn't telling people to take ALL their money out of the market, just to be sure that if they need a chunk of cash for something planned that they get it out now; but people hear what they want to hear. Cramer is still the only game in town when it comes to having the inner workings of the market explained on popular television...
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    • Fri Sep 26th 10:57 AM
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      Is the System on the Verge of Collapse?
      Capitalism is not the best system ever devised, it's just the system you're accustomed to, and can't imagine anything else. Capitalism is also not the free-market mechanism you imagine it to be--Capitalism as we know it today is a partnership of corporations and their servants in government designed for manipulating market conditions which once went by the name "fascism" in its European setting.

      The best system to be found in the world today is the light form of socialism we find in Europe called "social democracy". It allows corporations and private interests to pursue their aims with reasonable levels of regulation and attends to public needs in an effective way, unlike America, which is hamstrung by the "culture wars" at our highest levels of society...
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    • Tue Sep 16th 12:29 PM
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      AIG Downgrades Should Create an Endgame
      I'm with JasonC, it is truly bizarre to see how sincerely some of these "free market" radicals believe in that concepts so implicitly, like God or the tooth fairy, when the evidence for the manipulative nature of corporate capitalism and its reliance on government for its very existence is everywhere evident. Capitalism is not about free markets and is only possible as an interaction of government and corporations at their highest levels. Unless you're naive enough to believe the engines of wealth creation are going to be reconstructed after a crash without a central bank and monetary policies it would be better to use the organs of government to head off the crash. It will be interesting to see if the former chairman of Goldman Sachs could really be such a naive true believer in "free markets" as treasury secretary that he fails to use his powers to save the goose that lays the golden eggs...
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    • Thu Sep 11th 12:13 PM
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      SPDR GLD ETF Unloads 79 Tons of Gold - Should Investors Follow Suit?
      It's a mystery to me why ETF's that deal in a commodity like gold wouldn't have been organized to allow the fund to arbitrage and keep the profits aside as operating cash so that it wouldn't be necessary to dump the commodity at unfavorable prices or be unable to acquire it at favorable prices. Maybe instead of commodity ETF's we really want commodity arbitrage funds...
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    • Wed Sep 10th 12:50 PM
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      Energy Sell-Off Overdone
      I suspect hedge funds and perhaps even mutual funds are selling off everything to meet redemptions. There won't be any reason behind market and sector performance so long as the only players left in the game are dumping their mega-positions in everything...
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    • Sun Sep 7th 22:37 PM
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      $300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview
      Natural gas, like Helium, is a natural byproduct of hydrocarbon aging that exists in limited supply and cannot fill the mass energy role you imagine. Propane, a man-made version of it, does not supply the same energy level for a given quantity...
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    • Tue Aug 26th 12:58 PM
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      Why ETFs Will Overtake Traditional Mutual Funds
      Discussing ETF's versus mutual funds without describing their distinct functions and advantages is like talking about satellite radio as though it were just radio. Mutual funds originally gave the buyer diversification and simplification of some tax situations, but nowadays most funds are so large that even the themed funds function like just a market index. ETF's allow the buyer to drill down more specifically into certain commodities or to execute short positions with less risk, nice options for the retail buyer. While major pension funds will likely play footsie with big mutual funds for a long time to come, the tide can't be held back forever. There are too many mutual funds today and they're all becoming homogenous index funds, giving the buyer little reason to choose between them and a stronger desire to master one's own fate by buying commodities when they seem cheap or shorting things that seem ready to fall...
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