Richard Shaw

Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
comments219
  • Positive ratings +5
  • Negative ratings -1
  • Net rating +4 or 83 %
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
ABB ABN ADRD ADRE ADRU AES AGG AIV AJG AKNS AKS AMD AMT AMZN ARTNA ASTI ATE AWR AZN BA BAC BBH BBT BBV BCS BDH BEO BEP BFK BHI BIDU BIOHF BIV BK BND BNG BOE BP BPL BPT BRL BRO BSC BSR BSX BTF C CA CAF CAM
... [+more]

Latest Comments
219 Comments

    • Tue Nov 25th 09:59 AM
      |
      Rating: +3 -1
      Commented on:
      Major Two Day Rally: Hold Steady
      Lobster:

      "As for the war, it was brought to the WTC at New York City
      on 9-11-2001. Don't you forget that ever.
      You rather fight it inside the USA ? Won't be good. "

      Please try to keep comments relevant to the topic of the article. This has nothing to do whatsoever with the article's content, purpose or meaning.

      Richard Shaw
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 18th 12:08 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Capital Markets Composition
      China is top holder of US Treasuries, with $600 billion. That puts them about approximately at a 1/8th position in the overall outstanding treasuries.

      The Q3 Treasury net issuance was $178 billion.

      SIFMA projects Q4 Treasury net issuance at $388 billion, and a 2009 federal budget deficit of $688 billion (presumably to be financed with additional net Treasury issuance).

      If we combine 2008 Q3, Q4 and 2009, we get $1.554 Trillion net issuance beyond the June 2008 figure of $4.7 Trillion.

      That would be a 33% increase in Treasury debt, and a tall order for market absorption.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 15th 11:39 AM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lower Prices Now- Massive Inflation Later?
      nickgogerty

      That is funny. I have had a few inquiries about the potential for hyperinflation. You are apparently not alone in your thought, tongue-in-cheek or not.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 15:42 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Could Capital Injections Save the Auto Industry?
      Interesting comment by Cerberus from Bloomberg Nov 13:

      * * * *

      Cerberus Capital Management LP, the buyout firm that owns Chrysler LLC, would forgo any profit from a future sale of the automaker should it receive federal financial aid.

      Cerberus founder Stephen Feinberg ``has basically gone on record saying he would forfeit'' profit on a Chrysler sale in those circumstances, Nardelli said. ``This would not be supporting a private-equity company with government funds.''

      * * * *
      Feinberg failed to mention that while profit on cost would not be taken, the bailout might prevent Cerberus from taking a massive loss. That's taking a profit in a way. Not a profit from cost, but a profit from current value. That is public money for private gain.

      We may need to bailout the enterprise, but should not bailout the leveraged buy-out owner.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 12:18 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lower Prices Now- Massive Inflation Later?
      We mislabeled the Yen chart and have made both a chart and label substitution on our blog.

      www.qvmgroup.com/inves...
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 22:23 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Portfolio Expectations: What a Difference a Year Makes
      '70s stagflation survivor.

      Thanks, and very helpful charts on your site. I recommend other readers view them.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 18:35 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bye-Bye Dividends
      Ronald:

      The stock price would suffer, because (1) we are psychological machines, not computing machines -- fear and doubt would rise, and (2) those who bought because the need/want the cash flow would rotate out and it is not clear that others would necessarily rotate in.

      Your argument is about the math equivalency of two states, which even if scientifically true, is not the way individuals and crowds think behave.

      If the government said "no more dividends for bank stocks" for a while, their natural constituency for buying shares would diminish, and concern about what the government would do next would cause a level of uncertainty that is never good for prices.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 12:01 PM
      |
      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Bye-Bye Dividends
      Just Think for One Minute:

      I see some problems with your IRA suggestion. Since dividends have been taxed preferentially in the past few years, it would have increased the taxes to the maximum by putting dividends into an IRA, because all money coming out above cost basis is ordinary income.

      For investors who have assets outside of their IRA, they need to do something with them and dividends may have been most consistent with their needs and goals.

      Also some investors have far more outside of the IRA than inside. For example, if a person sold a business for millions and had hundreds of thousands in their IRA or other tax deferred vehicle, there would be no way to confine dividends to the IRA.

      It may be that dividends will be taxed at ordinary rates in the future, in which case the IRA argument becomes more suitable. However, because of capital gains potential with common stocks, securities with the least cap gains and most ordinary income should go into the IRA first -- such as bonds.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 12:16 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P Returns Since 1927 Are Important
      NeilEzell
      Your welcome. You are right. There are far too many gratuitously abusive comments left on Seeking Alpha. Let's hope the positive voices and those with thoughtful dialog dominate, so that those that seek to reduce the level of the dialog down to their level will eventually go away.
      Richard
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 21:36 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      For U.S. ETF Investors, No Place to Hide
      TomB
      You are right, no place for US persons, non-US persons or extraterrestrials to hide if their are investing in earthly stock markets
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 21:35 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      For U.S. ETF Investors, No Place to Hide
      rpritch99:
      It is conventional that returns are expressed as annualized unless stated otherwise. This follows the convention
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 21:23 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Surviving the Short-Term to Participate in the Long-Term
      Otbricki
      "Historically a Black Swan event is an occurrence or discovery that breaks a long held belief system based on a long history of observations that leads to a set assumptions of fact based on inductive logic."

      That's where we are today in my opinion.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 19:40 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Surviving the Short-Term to Participate in the Long-Term
      '70s stagflation survivor:
      visited your site, some very nice charts, other readers might benefit by viewing them as well. i was struck be the different impression made by the 1900-2008 dji chart versus the 1928-2008 chart. clearly the period we chose to analyze greatly impacts our conclusions. that was greenspan's point in his testimony last week.
      richard
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 18:12 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Surviving the Short-Term to Participate in the Long-Term
      '70s stagflation survivor:
      interesting data. you mentioned others. if you have a web resource for them, I'd like to have that -- would save a lot of tedious study to relicate
      Richard
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 16:29 PM
      |
      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Surviving the Short-Term to Participate in the Long-Term
      CyclingScholar:

      Thanks for the review.

      Black Swan is not a vocabulary problem. It was intended. It is an accepted term for a set of condition that exist today.

      If you were to study the term you would realize that when you get to the "fat tail" area of the distribution of events in combination with so many unforseen events and consequent effect, we are in a "Black Swan" situation.

      You might consider expanding your own vocabulary. Your closing statement is hardly a demonstration of substantial language skills.

      Richard
      View article »